Wealthy countries have surpassed their fair share of the world’s carbon budget, according to a recent report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The carbon budget is the amount we can emit before temperatures rise to a point that will cause extreme climate disruption. To keep temperatures at or below two degrees Celsius, the world can only emit a certain amount of additional carbon dioxide. Unfortunately, countries are on track to exceed the budget in about a decade due to the world currently generating about 40 gigatons of CO2 per year, and global carbon dioxide emissions are still increasing.
The latest report from the IPCC calculated that between 1850 and 2019, we emitted 80% of the amount of CO2 that would give us a 50-50 likelihood of limiting the world’s temperatures from exceeding 1.5 degrees Celsius since preindustrial times. The carbon budget does not include other greenhouse gases, but the budget provides a good sense of how much more can be emitted. If the world wants a higher chance of staying on target, the carbon budget must be lower.
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Some countries have not used close to their fair share of the world’s carbon budget, while others, including the U.S., Russia, and the European Union, have surpassed their share of the budget by a substantial margin, according to an analysis of national carbon budgets by Scientific American. China, although it has relatively recently industrialized, is catching up quickly to industrialized countries and is near to surpassing its budget. India, whose large economy has not contributed to historical emissions, argues it should be enabled to use its fair share of the carbon budget as it grows its economy.
According to the IPCC, there is a need for fast and deep emission cuts to limit the rise in temperature as much as possible. However, emissions cuts can be difficult to implement due to politics and entrenched economic interests. Industrializing and developing countries argue that they should have the right to use their fair share of the carbon budget as they strive to grow their economy. Countries in carbon debt, such as the United States, need to implement deeper emission cuts than they have committed to under the Paris Agreement to limit temperature growth and reach net-zero emissions by mid-century, according to climate scientists.
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The fact is that burning fossil fuels has resulted in more intense heat waves, droughts and heavier downpours causing massive floods globally, and other extreme climate disruptions. Humans need to keep the rise in global temperatures below two degrees Celsius to avoid much worse climate change effects in the future. Countries that have industrialized much more recently, such as India, have not come close to using up what would be their fair share of the budget. On the other hand, nations such as the U.S. and Russia, as well as the European Union, have surpassed their budget, illustrating the imbalance that needs to be resolved.
In conclusion, wealthy countries have surpassed their fair share of the carbon budget, and deep emission reductions are necessary to limit temperature growth and reach net-zero emissions by mid-century. Developing countries, such as India, argue they should be able to use their fair share of the carbon budget, given their need to grow their economy. However, if India uses all its remaining carbon budget, it would push the world even beyond its collective climate goals, showing that everyone must be responsible for avoiding climate catastrophe.
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